World Bank reveals, in the 2021 changing wealth of nations, that Nigeria, Ecuador, and Chile will probably run out of crude in the next 49 years.
From the report, except the nation discovers new oil wells, the recent oil reserves of Nigeria will not last up to 50 years while gas has more than 100 years in the reserve.
It also noted that about 18 countries in Africa have oil reserves that will last for two generations, while some have a century worth of reserves.
The report added that Nigeria, Ecuador, and Chile should invest in renewable natural capital and human capital like skills, knowledge, innovation, and institutions to diversify from their asset portfolio.
In terms of negative adjusted net savings, a country like Nigeria with rents from non-renewable natural capital has not invested enough to compensate the exhausting asset, the World Bank report says.
The report noted that after 2015, the swift drop in Nigeria’s renewable natural capital per capita altered the total per capita income of the country.
It further advised countries like Iraq, Sierra Leone, and Guinea on what to do to ensure their national wealth does not experience future disaster.
The government needs to consider policies that would preserve and build wealth, the report added.
How to Achieve the Aspiration of Making Nigeria’s Oil Last Longer than 49 Years
Nigeria is among the African countries with a rich reserve of hydrocarbons. This naturally-occurring compound forms the basis of natural gas, crude oil, and other essential energy sources.
The government dreams that the country’s oil reserve will run even after 2070. However, the aspiration is possible if the following conditions hold.
1. The Department of Petroleum Resources of Nigeria, DPR, postulates that the country’s aspiration for oil to last more than 49 years will come true if they reserve 40 billion barrels of oil from the number of barrels produced per day.
2. If the country can reserve 237.3 times its annual consumption (at current consumption levels), the oil reserve can last as the government wishes.
3. Finally, Nigeria would have more than 237 years of oil left if they can maintain the proven reserves equivalent to 237.3 without net exports and exclude unproven reserves, according to the regulatory body that ensures compliance to petroleum laws, regulations, and guidelines in oil and gas industry (DPR).